Sources
Ø Historical daily price data collected for the bankex sector from the year 2002-2006.
Ø Historical daily price data collected for FTSE 100 Index from the year 1995-2007(March).
Ø Data of the historical events (political,social,economical) that affected the stock market of
Ø Data of the historical events (political,social,economical) that affected the stock market of
Methodology:
Secondary data collection from the websites bseindia.com, nseindia.com, yahoofinance.com, bloomberg.com.
Indepth analysis of the data by using metastock software and different indicators like moving averages and standard deviation.
Standard deviation:
Standard deviation is a statistical term that provides a good indication of volatility. It measures how widely values (closing prices for instance) are dispersed from the average. Dispersion is the difference between the actual value (closing price) and the average value (mean closing price). The larger the difference between the closing prices and the average price, the higher the standard deviation will be and the higher the volatility. The closer the closing prices are to the average price, the lower the standard deviation and the lower the volatility.
Technical analysis
Technical Analysis is the forecasting of future financial price movements based on an examination of past price movements. Like weather forecasting, technical analysis does not result in absolute predictions about the future. Instead, technical analysis can help investors anticipate what is "likely" to happen to prices over time. According to technical analysts, the cyclical trend visible in the movement of stock prices is due to the changes in attitude of investors, reflected in changes in the demand for and supply of securities.
Moving Average:
Moving averages are one of the most popular and easy to use tools available to the technical analyst. A moving average is the average price of a security at a given time.
They smooth a data series and make it easier to spot trends.
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